Matt Scherer argues the SEC should block Anthropic's planned November IPO, citing severe financial risks obscured in the company's registration statement. While Anthropic reports $96 billion in cash reserves and rapid 2026 revenue growth, its amended filing reveals at least $582 billion in non-cancelable compute commitments to Amazon, AMD, Broadcom, Google, and Microsoft, with total contractual obligations nearing $895 billion and potentially exceeding $1 trillion. These off-balance-sheet liabilities function as de facto debt for 15 GW of data center capacity, estimated at $31 billion per GW, toward a projected 20-25 GW requirement. Scherer contends three forces squeeze margins: insufficient enterprise demand, with U.S. workplace AI usage reportedly falling from 46% to 33% between summers 2025 and 2026 and a tepid reception for the Fable 5 model; intense competition from Google, Meta, Microsoft, OpenAI, SpaceX, and Chinese open-weights providers driving a sustained price war; and escalating infrastructure costs compounded by construction delays from public backlash, the Iran War, and supply-chain constraints. Revenue growth reportedly slowed to a crawl in Q3 2026, and financials remain unaudited. Scherer asserts the prospectus is materially incomplete for relegating massive obligations to footnotes and relying on unaudited peak-growth figures, warning that a public listing would transfer collapse risk from insiders and VCs to retail investors and retirement funds, exacerbating systemic market concentration risk.
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