The CESifo working paper by Robert Fairlie and Jane Wu used microdata from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey to examine unemployment trends among recent college graduates—defined as bachelor’s‑degree holders aged 22‑25 who are not enrolled in further education. The researchers analyzed year‑over‑year and seasonal patterns dating back to 2022, the year employment returned to pre‑pandemic levels and ChatGPT was introduced, to detect any early signs of AI‑driven hiring reductions in entry‑level occupations. Their analysis found no evidence of a significant, widespread displacement or decline in hiring for this cohort, either in absolute numbers or relative to other worker groups. The study notes a concurrent rise in firms reporting the replacement of a large share of employee tasks with AI (per a Census survey), growth in AI spending per employee, and increased ChatGPT Enterprise token usage over the preceding 12 months, yet these indicators did not translate into measurable adverse effects on graduate employment outcomes. The authors conclude that, despite anecdotal concerns from industry leaders such as Marc Andreessen and Larry Fink, the data to date show no substantial AI‑related unemployment impact on recent college graduates.